ரசியா- ஜோர்யியா போர்முனை:
* ரசிய சமூக ஏகாதிபத்தியத்தின் வீழ்ச்சிக்குப் பின்னால் உருவாகிய ஒற்றைத்துருவ உலக ஒழுங்கமைப்புக்கு அமெரிக்கா தலைமை தாங்குகிறது.* முதலாளித்துவத்தின்- ஏகாதிபத்தியத்தின் ஏற்றத்தாழ்வான வளர்ச்சி விதி காரணமாக பொருளாதார ரீதியாக அமெரிக்கா ஐரோப்பிய யூனியனுக்கு பின் தங்கிவிட்டது
* இதனால் மூன்றாவது உலகப் பொது ஏகாதிபத்திய பொருளாதார நெருக்கடிக்குத் தீர்வாக உலகை மறுபங்கீடு செய்யும் தேசிய, பிராந்திய ஆக்கிரமிப்பு யுத்தங்களை கட்டவிழ்க்கும், தேசங்களை கபளீகரம் செய்யும் நவீன காலனியாதிக்க கொள்கைகளை நடைமுறையாக்க- பலவந்தமாக திணிக்க- ஒன்றுபடும் அதேவேளையில், அமெரிக்கா தனது சுய மேலாதிக்கத்தை நிறுவ தனது அணிகளுக்குள்ளேயே போராடுகிறது.
* இந்த உலக மறுபங்கீடு சமாதான வழிகளில் நடந்த காலகட்டம் முடிவுக்கு வந்துவிட்டது.
* உலக மறுபங்கீட்டிற்கான பொது வழி 'ஆட்சிக்கவிழ்ப்புகளை நோக்கமாகக் கொண்ட தேசிய ஆக்கிரமிப்பு யுத்தங்கள்' என்பதாக ஆகிவிட்டது.
* இந்தப் பொது வழியில் மற்றொரு போர்முனை மத்திய ஆசியாவில் ரசியாவின் காலடியில் திறக்கப்பட்டுவிட்டது.
* தற்காலிக செயல்தந்திர திருப்பங்கள் எதுவும் இந்தப் பொதுத் திசைவழியை மாற்றாது.
________________________________________________________
Georgia Russia: WARFor S. Ossetians, Bitterness After Attacks
Residents of Separatist Zone Describe Georgian Assault That Destroyed a Swath of Their Capital
By Peter FinnWashington Post Foreign ServiceSunday, August 17, 2008; A10 TSKHINVALI, Georgia, Aug. 16 --
By Peter FinnWashington Post Foreign ServiceSunday, August 17, 2008; A10 TSKHINVALI, Georgia, Aug. 16 --
The windows were blown out of the old synagogue here, and the wooden bimah splintered and partially collapsed. Shattered glass covered the floor, and parts of the ornately painted walls were ripped off. But the old building held, and it protected 40 people who took shelter in its spacious basement as the neighborhood above them was reduced to rubble.
"Three days we were here, without water, without bread," said Zemsira Tiblova, 60. "We had 14 children with us.""Unforgivable," said her husband, Georgi Bestaev. "It was inhuman to bomb us."
The war between Georgia and Russia was centered on this town of at most 10,000 people, and it cut a swath of destruction, severely damaging many homes and apartment buildings. Gaping holes scar five-story blocks of apartments, the detritus of what was once ordinary life
blown onto shattered balconies.
In one neighborhood, along Telman Street, house after crumpled house was a scorched shell, bricks piled high in basements exposed to the sunlight. The area is about 200 yards from destroyed separatist government buildings in central Tskhinvali, an acknowledged target ofGeorgian forces.
A school, a library and a kindergarten were blackened and pockmarked from small-arms fire, as were the houses around them. And the city was strewn with the ruined armor of both Georgian and Russian forces.
At certain moments, in certain places, the smell of rotting corpses was in the air.
Here in Tskhinvali, there was no doubt that Georgia started the war with Russia and much bitterness about the rain of artillery and rockets that the government of President Mikheil Saakashvili used in its efforts to capture the city. The Georgian government said much of the destruction of Tskhinvali was caused by a Russian counteroffensive, but that argument carries no weight with residents here, some of them clearly
traumatized.People insist that a terrible barrage struck the city late Aug. 7 and continued into the morning -- accounts supported by Western monitors who were also forced into their cellars. Indeed, buildings used by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe were damaged, one
severely.
"Grad came and hit us," said Garik Gabayev, referring to the fearsome BM-21 multiple rocket system employed by Georgian forces. "Grad" is a word that has entered the vocabulary of this town, cited by one resident after another as they described what they experienced.
Gabayev sat outside Saturday afternoon, just down the street from his father-in-law's pancaked home.
"I don't remember anything," he said, visibly shaking. "All the walls collapsed."
The scale of the destruction is undeniable; some streets summon iconic images of Stalingrad during World War II or Grozny, the capital of Chechnya, which was leveled in two wars between Russian and Chechen separatists.
But the number of dead remains in dispute. Mikhail Minsayev, the minister of interior in the separatist South Ossetian government, told
reporters Saturday that as many as 2,100 people had been killed. When challenged on that figure by reporters, who cited statements by medical workers and human rights groups that there was no evidence of such a high death toll, he said people quickly buried the dead in their
yards or took the bodies to North Ossetia in Russia for burial.
In conversations here, everyone interviewed said they had lost either no family members or one person. But those were interviews with people whose cellars had held. Many clearly had not.
Traveling here from the Georgian city of Gori and out to the Roki Tunnel that connects with Russia, the revenge taken by some of the inhabitants of South Ossetia was visible in the Georgian fields set on fire and the blackened, abandoned homes in Georgian villages north of
Tskhinvali. Two homes in those Georgian villages were ablaze Saturday night.
Russian military officials blamed the destruction on marauding South Ossetian militias and said they are attempting to restore order.
The headquarters of Russian peacekeepers in Tskhinvali was destroyed. The barracks where 500 soldiers slept took direct hits from tank fire.
A destroyed Russian tank sits by the barracks wall. The base's headquarters, dining hall and recreation center are ruined.
Vladimir Ivanov, deputy commander of the Russian peacekeeping force that was stationed here, said that 15 Russian peacekeepers were
killed during the war and that many more were wounded.Russian peacekeepers have been in South Ossetia since the early 1990s, when a cease-fire was declared after an earlier conflict. This breakaway province of Georgia has since had de facto independence from the central authorities in Tbilisi, the Georgian capital.
Georgian officials accused the Russian peacekeeping force of backing the South Ossetian separatists and failing to rein in their attacks on Georgian villages and territory in Georgia proper.
The war has poisoned people here against any future connection with Georgia although the province remains within Georgia's internationally recognized borders.
"Georgia is finished here; they are never coming back," Bestaev said. "We cannot live without Russia. We must become part of Russia, because we can't handle the problem independently."
Russia signs up to Georgia truce
Russia has followed Georgia in signing a French-brokered peace plan for ending their nine-day-old conflict.
But Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said the withdrawal of Russian forces from deep inside Georgia depended on extra security measures being put in place.
He said Russian forces were encountering "problems caused by Georgia", and refused to put a timetable on their departure.
US President George W Bush again demanded Russian forces withdraw. *****************************************
But Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said the withdrawal of Russian forces from deep inside Georgia depended on extra security measures being put in place.
He said Russian forces were encountering "problems caused by Georgia", and refused to put a timetable on their departure.
US President George W Bush again demanded Russian forces withdraw. *****************************************
PEACE PLAN No more use of force
Stop all military actions for good
Free access to humanitarian aid
Georgian troops return to their places of permanent deployment
Russian troops to return to pre-conflict positions
International talks about future status of South Ossetia and Abkhazia ******************************************
A simmering conflict between Georgia and Russia erupted on 7 August when Georgia launched an assault to retake its Russian-backed separatist province of South Ossetia. It led to a massive counter-offensive by Russia, with Russia moving deeper into Georgian territory.
Scores of people have been killed by the fighting and tens of thousands displaced.
US-backed Georgia has vowed it will not accept any loss of its territory, but Russia insists that following the recent violence, residents are unlikely to want to live in the same state as Georgians.
The future of another breakaway region, Abkhazia, is also at stake.
Georgia's foreign ministry said on Saturday that Russian-backed separatists from the province had seized 13 villages and a power plant within Georgia.
The claim could not immediately be independently confirmed.
Security steps On Saturday Russian President Dmitry Medvedev followed his Georgian counterpart, Mikhail Saakashvili, in signing the truce.
Among the six points in the agreement, both sides agree to pull back their forces to pre-conflict positions.
George Bush on the status of South Ossetia and Abkhazia
But reports say the agreement contains a provision that allows Russia to implement additional security measures on a temporary basis ahead of the arrival of international ceasefire monitors.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told reporters it was these security measures that would be implemented "first and foremost".
Diplomats have said that the UN Security Council is expected to vote this weekend on a draft resolution formalising the ceasefire agreement.
Russian forces are now far beyond South Ossetia's borders in Georgian territory.
They are reported to have occupied the central town of Khashuri, giving them control of all but one of the major towns on the highway across Georgia from the Black Sea to the capital Tbilisi.
And the BBC's Gabriel Gatehouse puts them within 35km (22 miles) of Tbilisi itself. He says they do not look like they are pulling out - and in fact seem to have dug in.
'Barbarians'
The US has called a number of times for Russian forces to leave its ally's territory, and President Bush repeated the message from his ranch in Crawford, Texas, on Saturday.
He said Mr Medvedev's signing of the truce was "hopeful", but that there could be no question that South Ossetia and Abkhazia would remain within Georgian borders - borders that were internationally recognised.
There was "no room for debate on this matter", Mr Bush said.
President Saakashvili signed the ceasefire agreement on Friday, after a meeting lasting more than four hours with visiting US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.
Reports suggest Mr Saakashvili only reluctantly agreed to another of the plan's clauses - international talks about the future status of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
After the meeting he launched a bitter attack on Moscow, calling Russian troops "21st Century barbarians" and accusing them of war crimes.
He criticised the West for not granting Georgia membership of Nato, saying it could have prevented the fighting.
Russia argues its forces are there to ensure civilians face no threat from Georgian troops.
South Ossetia has had de facto independence since the end of a civil war in 1992.
Scores of people have been killed by the fighting and tens of thousands displaced.
US-backed Georgia has vowed it will not accept any loss of its territory, but Russia insists that following the recent violence, residents are unlikely to want to live in the same state as Georgians.
The future of another breakaway region, Abkhazia, is also at stake.
Georgia's foreign ministry said on Saturday that Russian-backed separatists from the province had seized 13 villages and a power plant within Georgia.
The claim could not immediately be independently confirmed.
Security steps On Saturday Russian President Dmitry Medvedev followed his Georgian counterpart, Mikhail Saakashvili, in signing the truce.
Among the six points in the agreement, both sides agree to pull back their forces to pre-conflict positions.
George Bush on the status of South Ossetia and Abkhazia
But reports say the agreement contains a provision that allows Russia to implement additional security measures on a temporary basis ahead of the arrival of international ceasefire monitors.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told reporters it was these security measures that would be implemented "first and foremost".
Diplomats have said that the UN Security Council is expected to vote this weekend on a draft resolution formalising the ceasefire agreement.
Russian forces are now far beyond South Ossetia's borders in Georgian territory.
They are reported to have occupied the central town of Khashuri, giving them control of all but one of the major towns on the highway across Georgia from the Black Sea to the capital Tbilisi.
And the BBC's Gabriel Gatehouse puts them within 35km (22 miles) of Tbilisi itself. He says they do not look like they are pulling out - and in fact seem to have dug in.
'Barbarians'
The US has called a number of times for Russian forces to leave its ally's territory, and President Bush repeated the message from his ranch in Crawford, Texas, on Saturday.
He said Mr Medvedev's signing of the truce was "hopeful", but that there could be no question that South Ossetia and Abkhazia would remain within Georgian borders - borders that were internationally recognised.
There was "no room for debate on this matter", Mr Bush said.
President Saakashvili signed the ceasefire agreement on Friday, after a meeting lasting more than four hours with visiting US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.
Reports suggest Mr Saakashvili only reluctantly agreed to another of the plan's clauses - international talks about the future status of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
After the meeting he launched a bitter attack on Moscow, calling Russian troops "21st Century barbarians" and accusing them of war crimes.
He criticised the West for not granting Georgia membership of Nato, saying it could have prevented the fighting.
Russia argues its forces are there to ensure civilians face no threat from Georgian troops.
South Ossetia has had de facto independence since the end of a civil war in 1992.
Georgia fallout felt in Iraq
U.S. troop withdrawal plans could be affected by the exit of 2,000 Georgian troops from IraqBy Peter SpiegelLos Angeles Times Staff Writer
August 15, 2008
WASHINGTON — Army Gen. David H. Petraeus, the U.S. commander in Iraq, is being forced to grapple with one of the unexpected byproducts of the conflict in Georgia: His plan to withdraw American forces in Iraq was predicated on all partner nations keeping their troop levels intact.
With nearly 2,000 Georgian troops returning home in the midst of the crisis there, the coalition has lost what one senior military official called one of the largest and most capable contributions to the Iraq effort. As a result, the official said, Petraeus is now assessing whether he will have
to change his plans, including possibly delaying the return home of some U.S. forces this year.
"One of the assumptions for the future in Iraq was that coalition contributions would remain relatively stable," said the senior military official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss Iraq troop deployments publicly. "This is the third-largest contingent, and a very capable contingent. This changes the calculus."
A military officer in Baghdad cautioned that Petraeus had not completed his assessment on force reductions when the Georgians left, and added that U.S. and Iraqi forces had so far been able to take over the vacated positions.
But another military official familiar with Iraq planning said Georgian troops had been central to a new push to block weapons shipments coming across the border from Iran into southeastern Iraq, setting up a base in the city of Kut and patrolling nearby border regions.
"You can't lose the Georgian component without some impact," said the military official, who also requested anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss Iraq troop deployments publicly. "If you had to assess the 30 countries in Iraq as a coalition force, Georgia was among
the top tier, both in number and capabilities."
Petraeus' 45-day assessment period began at the end of last month when the last of the five U.S. brigades deployed in the troop buildup last year departed from Iraq. At the end of the assessment, he is to deliver his recommendation on whether U.S. troop drawdowns can resume in the fall. Over the course of this year, American force levels have gone from a peak of about 170,000 to approximately 140,000, just above pre-buildup levels.
The sharp reduction in violence in Iraq in recent months has led many at the Pentagon to believe that Petraeus will call for additional troop reductions by the end of the year. Adm. Michael G. Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said after a visit to Iraq in July that he
expected to be able to recommend a resumption of withdrawals next month.
The rising violence in Afghanistan has also put pressure on military planners to withdraw troops from Iraq, since significant increases in Afghan forces cannot occur without them. According to Pentagon officials, Mullen's staff is weighing a recommendation to send the next unit
scheduled to deploy to Iraq -- the 2nd Brigade of the Army's 4th Infantry Division -- to Afghanistan instead, perhaps as early as December.
One of the military officials said that although the Georgian contingent was the size of about half a U.S. brigade, it was unlikely that its departure would derail plans to send the U.S. brigade to Afghanistan.
But the official said that the Georgian mission along the border had begun to have some impact and that the withdrawal schedule of smaller U.S. units could be affected, because it is unlikely another allied military would take up the task.
In addition to the border mission, Georgian troops were responsible for providing security to the U.N. mission in Iraq.
"They were beginning to establish some real capability along the border to help ramp up [Iraqi security forces] and slow down the Iranian flows of illegal arms across the border," the official said.
The departure of the Georgians and the continued withdrawal of British and Polish troops has drastically reduced the number of non-U.S. foreign troops available to Petraeus. Britain maintains 4,100 troops in Iraq, the largest contingent after the U.S., but British Prime Minister
Gordon Brown outlined a plan last month that would resume withdrawals over the next year to where few would remain in southern Iraq.
Times staff writer Julian E. Barnes contributed to this report.
August 15, 2008
WASHINGTON — Army Gen. David H. Petraeus, the U.S. commander in Iraq, is being forced to grapple with one of the unexpected byproducts of the conflict in Georgia: His plan to withdraw American forces in Iraq was predicated on all partner nations keeping their troop levels intact.
With nearly 2,000 Georgian troops returning home in the midst of the crisis there, the coalition has lost what one senior military official called one of the largest and most capable contributions to the Iraq effort. As a result, the official said, Petraeus is now assessing whether he will have
to change his plans, including possibly delaying the return home of some U.S. forces this year.
"One of the assumptions for the future in Iraq was that coalition contributions would remain relatively stable," said the senior military official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss Iraq troop deployments publicly. "This is the third-largest contingent, and a very capable contingent. This changes the calculus."
A military officer in Baghdad cautioned that Petraeus had not completed his assessment on force reductions when the Georgians left, and added that U.S. and Iraqi forces had so far been able to take over the vacated positions.
But another military official familiar with Iraq planning said Georgian troops had been central to a new push to block weapons shipments coming across the border from Iran into southeastern Iraq, setting up a base in the city of Kut and patrolling nearby border regions.
"You can't lose the Georgian component without some impact," said the military official, who also requested anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss Iraq troop deployments publicly. "If you had to assess the 30 countries in Iraq as a coalition force, Georgia was among
the top tier, both in number and capabilities."
Petraeus' 45-day assessment period began at the end of last month when the last of the five U.S. brigades deployed in the troop buildup last year departed from Iraq. At the end of the assessment, he is to deliver his recommendation on whether U.S. troop drawdowns can resume in the fall. Over the course of this year, American force levels have gone from a peak of about 170,000 to approximately 140,000, just above pre-buildup levels.
The sharp reduction in violence in Iraq in recent months has led many at the Pentagon to believe that Petraeus will call for additional troop reductions by the end of the year. Adm. Michael G. Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said after a visit to Iraq in July that he
expected to be able to recommend a resumption of withdrawals next month.
The rising violence in Afghanistan has also put pressure on military planners to withdraw troops from Iraq, since significant increases in Afghan forces cannot occur without them. According to Pentagon officials, Mullen's staff is weighing a recommendation to send the next unit
scheduled to deploy to Iraq -- the 2nd Brigade of the Army's 4th Infantry Division -- to Afghanistan instead, perhaps as early as December.
One of the military officials said that although the Georgian contingent was the size of about half a U.S. brigade, it was unlikely that its departure would derail plans to send the U.S. brigade to Afghanistan.
But the official said that the Georgian mission along the border had begun to have some impact and that the withdrawal schedule of smaller U.S. units could be affected, because it is unlikely another allied military would take up the task.
In addition to the border mission, Georgian troops were responsible for providing security to the U.N. mission in Iraq.
"They were beginning to establish some real capability along the border to help ramp up [Iraqi security forces] and slow down the Iranian flows of illegal arms across the border," the official said.
The departure of the Georgians and the continued withdrawal of British and Polish troops has drastically reduced the number of non-U.S. foreign troops available to Petraeus. Britain maintains 4,100 troops in Iraq, the largest contingent after the U.S., but British Prime Minister
Gordon Brown outlined a plan last month that would resume withdrawals over the next year to where few would remain in southern Iraq.
Times staff writer Julian E. Barnes contributed to this report.
International Relations 14.08.2008 Poland,
US Sign Missile Defense Deal
Großansicht des Bildes mit der Bildunterschrift: Poland said it was promised US Patriot missiles as part of the deal Poland and the United States have reached agreement on stationing 10 interceptor missiles on Polish soil as part of an American missile defense system, according to Polish Prime Minister Tusk.
"We have reached a deal with the United States on the shield," after Washington agreed to meet Poland's key demand for defense aid separate from the anti-missile system, Tusk told Polish news channel TVN in a live interview.
"We would start with a battery under US command, but made available to the Polish army. Then there would be a second phase, involving
equipping the Polish army with missiles," Tusk added, emphasizing that negotiators had reached a "preliminary deal."
The agreement has been reached after more than 18 months of back-and-forth, often terse, negotiations between the two countries. Its
conclusion carries an especially symbolic weight in the aftermath of Russia's incursion into Georgia in recent days.
Bildunterschrift: Großansicht des Bildes mit der Bildunterschrift: Tusk said Poland's demands had been metIn return for agreeing to host 10 US missile interceptors on its soil, Poland will receive Patriot air defense missiles and increased military
cooperation with the US, according to a report by Poland's PAP news agency
US and Polish negotiators were meeting in Warsaw on Thursday in the latest in a series of talks that formally began in May 2007.
Czech deal already complete
In July, the Bush administration signed a deal with the neighboring Czech Republic on hosting a radar base -- the other part of the system to be based in the two ex-communist countries. Poland and Czech Republic joined NATO in 1999 and the European Union in 2004.
Before the latest talks in Warsaw, top Polish government officials said a new US proposal was on the table and that Russia's military assault on Georgia had given an impetus to the missile defense talks.
A key Polish concern is boosting its air defenses after Moscow threatened to target the planned bases in its former direct sphere of influence.
Russia strongly opposes the US plan, despite assurances from Washington that the shield would target ballistic missile threats from countries like Iran and was not meant to undermine Russia's nuclear deterrent.
The Interfax news agency cites Konstantin Kosachev, who chairs the foreign affairs committee in the Russian lower house of parliament, as saying the agreement will spark "a real rise in tensions in Russian-American relations."
US and Poland rush to secure missile defence shield
"We have reached a deal with the United States on the shield," after Washington agreed to meet Poland's key demand for defense aid separate from the anti-missile system, Tusk told Polish news channel TVN in a live interview.
"We would start with a battery under US command, but made available to the Polish army. Then there would be a second phase, involving
equipping the Polish army with missiles," Tusk added, emphasizing that negotiators had reached a "preliminary deal."
The agreement has been reached after more than 18 months of back-and-forth, often terse, negotiations between the two countries. Its
conclusion carries an especially symbolic weight in the aftermath of Russia's incursion into Georgia in recent days.
Bildunterschrift: Großansicht des Bildes mit der Bildunterschrift: Tusk said Poland's demands had been metIn return for agreeing to host 10 US missile interceptors on its soil, Poland will receive Patriot air defense missiles and increased military
cooperation with the US, according to a report by Poland's PAP news agency
US and Polish negotiators were meeting in Warsaw on Thursday in the latest in a series of talks that formally began in May 2007.
Czech deal already complete
In July, the Bush administration signed a deal with the neighboring Czech Republic on hosting a radar base -- the other part of the system to be based in the two ex-communist countries. Poland and Czech Republic joined NATO in 1999 and the European Union in 2004.
Before the latest talks in Warsaw, top Polish government officials said a new US proposal was on the table and that Russia's military assault on Georgia had given an impetus to the missile defense talks.
A key Polish concern is boosting its air defenses after Moscow threatened to target the planned bases in its former direct sphere of influence.
Russia strongly opposes the US plan, despite assurances from Washington that the shield would target ballistic missile threats from countries like Iran and was not meant to undermine Russia's nuclear deterrent.
The Interfax news agency cites Konstantin Kosachev, who chairs the foreign affairs committee in the Russian lower house of parliament, as saying the agreement will spark "a real rise in tensions in Russian-American relations."
US and Poland rush to secure missile defence shield
America and Poland are rushing to secure a deal to build a controversial missile defence shield in Eastern Europe in response to Russia's invasion of Georgia.
By Harry de Quetteville in Berlin Last Updated: 7:12PM BST 14 Aug 2008
The Warsaw government said that talks with Washington to locate a missile silo in Poland to accompany a radar site in the Czech Republic were almost "at the finishing line".
US negotiations with Warsaw over the project, which would see a silo of 10 interceptor missiles housed in the north of the country, have been dragging on for more than a year.
But in the wake of Russia's advance into Georgia, both America and the centre-Right government of the Polish prime minister Donald Tusk appear determined to cement their alliance and complete the missile shield deal.
"We feel at the moment a greater concern for our safety," said Bogdan Klich, the Polish defence minister, evoking fears of a resurgent Russia widespread in the former Eastern Bloc.
"That's why every installation of the western world on the Polish territory has its meaning, because it anchors Poland more deeply to the West."
While America says the shield is designed to destroy lone-missiles from "rogue states" such as Iran, Russia considers it a strategic encirclement that undermines its nuclear deterrent. If agreed now, the system, which would twin the Polish missile silo with a radar station in the Czech Republic, would be ready by around 2012.
Mr Klich said that Poland and the US were "really at the finish line of these talks" over missile defence, hinting that Washington was finally prepared to meet Polish security demands in return for housing the missile silo.
Most significantly, Poland wants American-run Patriot missile batteries on its territory, in what it considers the best defence against potential Russian retaliation.
"It seems that the Americans have changed their view due to the situation in the Caucasus," Mr Klich said.
"In the eyes of Washington, this conflict has proven that Russia isn't a stable partner and continues to consider its international surroundings as its exclusive sphere of influence."
Analysts suggest that the conflict in Georgia has sent shockwaves through countries that once lay behind the Iron Curtain.
"Appeasement is over," said Carina O'Reilly, European Security Editor of Jane's Defence Weekly. "With Russian tanks rolling into Georgia, there's a feeling [among former eastern bloc states] that the tanks could roll over their borders too.
"There's a certain urgency now."
Mr Tusk, once considered to considerably more Russia-friendly than his Moscow-sceptic predecessor Jaroslaw Kaczynski, is now making that urgency clear.
"Our arguments about the need for a permanent presence of US troops and missiles on Polish soil have been taken seriously by the American side," he said. "The events in the Caucasus show clearly that such security guarantees are indispensable.
"As soon as we are sure that Poland's security has been reinforced to the degree we want, we're not going to wait for hours to sign a deal."
Russian general says Poland a nuclear 'target'
By Harry de Quetteville in Berlin Last Updated: 7:12PM BST 14 Aug 2008
The Warsaw government said that talks with Washington to locate a missile silo in Poland to accompany a radar site in the Czech Republic were almost "at the finishing line".
US negotiations with Warsaw over the project, which would see a silo of 10 interceptor missiles housed in the north of the country, have been dragging on for more than a year.
But in the wake of Russia's advance into Georgia, both America and the centre-Right government of the Polish prime minister Donald Tusk appear determined to cement their alliance and complete the missile shield deal.
"We feel at the moment a greater concern for our safety," said Bogdan Klich, the Polish defence minister, evoking fears of a resurgent Russia widespread in the former Eastern Bloc.
"That's why every installation of the western world on the Polish territory has its meaning, because it anchors Poland more deeply to the West."
While America says the shield is designed to destroy lone-missiles from "rogue states" such as Iran, Russia considers it a strategic encirclement that undermines its nuclear deterrent. If agreed now, the system, which would twin the Polish missile silo with a radar station in the Czech Republic, would be ready by around 2012.
Mr Klich said that Poland and the US were "really at the finish line of these talks" over missile defence, hinting that Washington was finally prepared to meet Polish security demands in return for housing the missile silo.
Most significantly, Poland wants American-run Patriot missile batteries on its territory, in what it considers the best defence against potential Russian retaliation.
"It seems that the Americans have changed their view due to the situation in the Caucasus," Mr Klich said.
"In the eyes of Washington, this conflict has proven that Russia isn't a stable partner and continues to consider its international surroundings as its exclusive sphere of influence."
Analysts suggest that the conflict in Georgia has sent shockwaves through countries that once lay behind the Iron Curtain.
"Appeasement is over," said Carina O'Reilly, European Security Editor of Jane's Defence Weekly. "With Russian tanks rolling into Georgia, there's a feeling [among former eastern bloc states] that the tanks could roll over their borders too.
"There's a certain urgency now."
Mr Tusk, once considered to considerably more Russia-friendly than his Moscow-sceptic predecessor Jaroslaw Kaczynski, is now making that urgency clear.
"Our arguments about the need for a permanent presence of US troops and missiles on Polish soil have been taken seriously by the American side," he said. "The events in the Caucasus show clearly that such security guarantees are indispensable.
"As soon as we are sure that Poland's security has been reinforced to the degree we want, we're not going to wait for hours to sign a deal."
Russian general says Poland a nuclear 'target'
Poland has made itself a nuclear target for Russia’s military by hosting elements of a US anti-missile system, a senior Russian general warned. By Damien McElroy in Tbilisi Last Updated: 5:45PM BST 15 Aug 2008
General Anatoly Nogovitsyn said that Russia?s military doctrine sanctions the use of nuclear weapons 'against the allies of countries having nuclear weapon'
General Anatoly Nogovitsyn said that Russia?s military doctrine sanctions the use of nuclear weapons 'against the allies of countries having nuclear weapon'
Moscow issued the direct threat to another US ally.
“Poland is making itself a target. This is 100 percent” certain, Russia’s Interfax news agency quoted General Anatoly Nogovitsyn as saying.
“It becomes a target for attack. Such targets are destroyed as a first priority,” Gen Nogovitsy was quoted as saying.
He added that Russia’s military doctrine sanctions the use of nuclear weapons “against the allies of countries having nuclear weapons if they in some way help them,” Interfax said.
George W Bush, speaking in Washington accused Russian President Dmitry Medvedev of "bullying" his neighbours and said the tactics were working against Russia's interests on the international stage.
Following months of discontent over the planned siting of the US missile shield, Russia reacted furiously last night when Washington sweetened its package with an agreement to sell a Patriot defence battery to Warsaw. “The fact that this was signed in a period of very difficult crisis in
the relations between Russia and the United States over the situation in Georgia shows that, of course, the missile defence system will be deployed not against Iran but against the strategic potential of Russia,” said Dmitry Rogozin, Russia’s envoy to Nato.
“I consider that the United States is not acting in a cautious manner in this situation.”
The US Secretary of State arrived in Tbilisi today to secure the withdrawal of Russian combat forces to ceasefire lines but Russian forces maintained a stranglehold on key strategic points from the west to the east of Georgia, though the military appeared to have begun a staged
withdrawal from the flashpoint town of Gori.
Miss Rice brought with her a draft French-brokered ceasefire that would require Russia to withdraw its combat troops from Georgia but would allow Russian peacekeepers to remain in the flash-point separatist region of South Ossetia and temporarily patrol outside the area.
However, Miss Rice said the document would preserve the long-term principle of Georgia’s territorial integrity. “It needs to be a formal ceasefire, which is what we are working on,” she said. “But in order to get to that point there really does have to be important clarifications on
a couple of these points (in the ceasefire) in order to make sure that Georgian interests are protected. Because the United States would never ask Georgia to sign on to something where its interests are not protected.”
By holding Gori, Russian forces effectively cut the country in half because the city sits along Georgia’s only significant east-west highway. But restrictions on movements in and out of the town were being lifted as Russia moved back. “It’s quiet there, but now there are problems with
food,” said Alexander Lomaia, the head of Georgia’s national security council, who entered the town yesterday.
The Georgian interior ministry spokesman Shota Utiashvili said there are no Russian troops in the city of Kutaisi, Georgia’s second-largest city, despite reports they were headed in that direction overnight. Georgian officials said that troops remain in the Black Sea port city of Poti.
The UN refugee agency raised its estimates of the number of displaced by the conflict. It said that 118,000 people had fled their homes because of fighting between Georgia and Russia and marauding by militias.
The UN High Commissioner for Refugees. Antonio Guterres, will visit Tblisi and Moscow next week and will demand greater access for aid agencies to the conflict zones, according to his spokesman, Ron Redmond.
He said: The latest estimates of displacement related to the conflict now total more than 118,000, based on figures provided by the governments.”
Russia rejected a Human Rights Watch report that its aircraft had used cluster bombs in two separate raids on the towns of Ruisi and Gori on Tuesday, killing at least 11 civilians and injuring dozens. Colonel-General Anatoly Nogovitsyn, the deputy chief of Russia’s General Staff, said:
“We never use cluster bombs. There is no need to do so.”
US, Poland strike deal for anti-missile bases
“Poland is making itself a target. This is 100 percent” certain, Russia’s Interfax news agency quoted General Anatoly Nogovitsyn as saying.
“It becomes a target for attack. Such targets are destroyed as a first priority,” Gen Nogovitsy was quoted as saying.
He added that Russia’s military doctrine sanctions the use of nuclear weapons “against the allies of countries having nuclear weapons if they in some way help them,” Interfax said.
George W Bush, speaking in Washington accused Russian President Dmitry Medvedev of "bullying" his neighbours and said the tactics were working against Russia's interests on the international stage.
Following months of discontent over the planned siting of the US missile shield, Russia reacted furiously last night when Washington sweetened its package with an agreement to sell a Patriot defence battery to Warsaw. “The fact that this was signed in a period of very difficult crisis in
the relations between Russia and the United States over the situation in Georgia shows that, of course, the missile defence system will be deployed not against Iran but against the strategic potential of Russia,” said Dmitry Rogozin, Russia’s envoy to Nato.
“I consider that the United States is not acting in a cautious manner in this situation.”
The US Secretary of State arrived in Tbilisi today to secure the withdrawal of Russian combat forces to ceasefire lines but Russian forces maintained a stranglehold on key strategic points from the west to the east of Georgia, though the military appeared to have begun a staged
withdrawal from the flashpoint town of Gori.
Miss Rice brought with her a draft French-brokered ceasefire that would require Russia to withdraw its combat troops from Georgia but would allow Russian peacekeepers to remain in the flash-point separatist region of South Ossetia and temporarily patrol outside the area.
However, Miss Rice said the document would preserve the long-term principle of Georgia’s territorial integrity. “It needs to be a formal ceasefire, which is what we are working on,” she said. “But in order to get to that point there really does have to be important clarifications on
a couple of these points (in the ceasefire) in order to make sure that Georgian interests are protected. Because the United States would never ask Georgia to sign on to something where its interests are not protected.”
By holding Gori, Russian forces effectively cut the country in half because the city sits along Georgia’s only significant east-west highway. But restrictions on movements in and out of the town were being lifted as Russia moved back. “It’s quiet there, but now there are problems with
food,” said Alexander Lomaia, the head of Georgia’s national security council, who entered the town yesterday.
The Georgian interior ministry spokesman Shota Utiashvili said there are no Russian troops in the city of Kutaisi, Georgia’s second-largest city, despite reports they were headed in that direction overnight. Georgian officials said that troops remain in the Black Sea port city of Poti.
The UN refugee agency raised its estimates of the number of displaced by the conflict. It said that 118,000 people had fled their homes because of fighting between Georgia and Russia and marauding by militias.
The UN High Commissioner for Refugees. Antonio Guterres, will visit Tblisi and Moscow next week and will demand greater access for aid agencies to the conflict zones, according to his spokesman, Ron Redmond.
He said: The latest estimates of displacement related to the conflict now total more than 118,000, based on figures provided by the governments.”
Russia rejected a Human Rights Watch report that its aircraft had used cluster bombs in two separate raids on the towns of Ruisi and Gori on Tuesday, killing at least 11 civilians and injuring dozens. Colonel-General Anatoly Nogovitsyn, the deputy chief of Russia’s General Staff, said:
“We never use cluster bombs. There is no need to do so.”
US, Poland strike deal for anti-missile bases
Russia expresses its displeasure with the agreement, which is seen as a response to the Georgia invasion.By Arthur Brightfrom the August 16, 2008 edition
The United States and Poland have announced an agreement to put US anti-missile interceptors in Poland to defend the US and Europe from "rogue" missile attacks. But Russia, having recently invaded Georgia, sees itself as the agreement's target.
The Los Angeles Times reports that the deal, reached Thursday, would allow the US to place 10 anti-missile interceptors in Poland, in exchange for upgrading Polish military defenses with a battery of Patriot missiles.
Washington says the planned system, which is not yet operational, is needed to protect the U.S. and Europe from possible attacks by missile- armed "rogue states," such as Iran. The Kremlin, however, believes it is aimed at Russia's missile force and warns that it will worsen
tensions....
In recent days, Polish leaders have said the fighting in the Caucasus justified Poland's demands it get additional security guarantees from the U.S. in exchange for allowing the antimissile base on its soil. But after the deal was announced, American and Polish officials sought to play
down any connection to the current conflict.
"This is not linked to the situation in Georgia," the chief U.S. negotiator, John Rood, said after the pact was signed. But in announcing the deal, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk noted that it included a "mutual commitment" between the US and Poland, which, the Times adds, appears "to be a reference to Russia, which has threatened to aim its nuclear-armed missiles at Poland – a former Soviet satellite – if it allows the U.S. site on its soil."
Russian officials were quick to express their displeasure with the missile deal.
The United States and Poland have announced an agreement to put US anti-missile interceptors in Poland to defend the US and Europe from "rogue" missile attacks. But Russia, having recently invaded Georgia, sees itself as the agreement's target.
The Los Angeles Times reports that the deal, reached Thursday, would allow the US to place 10 anti-missile interceptors in Poland, in exchange for upgrading Polish military defenses with a battery of Patriot missiles.
Washington says the planned system, which is not yet operational, is needed to protect the U.S. and Europe from possible attacks by missile- armed "rogue states," such as Iran. The Kremlin, however, believes it is aimed at Russia's missile force and warns that it will worsen
tensions....
In recent days, Polish leaders have said the fighting in the Caucasus justified Poland's demands it get additional security guarantees from the U.S. in exchange for allowing the antimissile base on its soil. But after the deal was announced, American and Polish officials sought to play
down any connection to the current conflict.
"This is not linked to the situation in Georgia," the chief U.S. negotiator, John Rood, said after the pact was signed. But in announcing the deal, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk noted that it included a "mutual commitment" between the US and Poland, which, the Times adds, appears "to be a reference to Russia, which has threatened to aim its nuclear-armed missiles at Poland – a former Soviet satellite – if it allows the U.S. site on its soil."
Russian officials were quick to express their displeasure with the missile deal.
Russia's envoy to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization
(NATO), Dmitry Rogozin, told Reuters that the timing of the agreement proves that Russia is its intended target.
"The fact that this was signed in a period of very difficult crisis in the relations between Russia and the United States over the situation in Georgia shows that, of course, the missile defense system will be deployed not against Iran but against the strategic potential of Russia,"
Dmitry Rogozin said in a telephone interview....
"I consider that the United States is not acting in a cautious manner in this situation," Rogozin said when asked about U.S.-Russian relations and the situation in Georgia.
"Instead of getting full moral and political support in the struggle against real aggression and ethnic cleansing, we have heard a mass of unpleasant words and threats. That will of course not strengthen our relations."
Mr. Rogozin was not the only Russian voice to criticize the deal. The Associated Press writes that Gen. Anatoly Nogovitsyn, deputy chief of the Russian general staff, warned that the deal "cannot go unpunished."
A Polskie Radio website, The News, reports that Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov cancelled a trip to Warsaw meant to improve
Polish-Russian relations while a Russian parliamentary official warned that Russia may now aim its rockets at Poland.
The BBC reports that US President George Bush was "very pleased" with the deal, but notes that a White House spokesperson denied that the agreement had anything to do with Russia. Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski made similar comments to the BBC.
"We agreed this negotiating phase a week ago, which was ... before the events in Georgia, and because of the US calendar there was some urgency," [Sikorski] said.
"But, what is crucial, and what decided the success of the talks over the last couple of days, was that the US offered us new proposals."
The Times of London suggests that the "new proposals" that cinched the deal were the US's agreement to deploy Patriot missiles, which will bolster Polish air defenses and "are supposed to reassure Poland in case the Russians start rattling their sabres."
At least one Russian official has said that the agreement's practical military impact is minor, however. RIA Novosti reports that Andrei Klimov,
deputy head of the State Duma's international affairs committee, downplayed the strategic importance of the missile base as well as the timing of the agreement. "There might be a psychological element in it, but talks with Poland had been dragging on long enough beforehand," he said.
The agreement saw criticism not only in Russia, but in the West as well. TheHuffington Post blogger Joe Cirincione wrote that the missile deal brings no security gains and is instead driven by proponents of an unproven technology.
The proposed deployment of missile defenses in Poland and the Czech Republic and the Russian-Georgia conflict are two separate issues.
This is not about defending the democracy in Georgia; this is about ideologues trying to save a weapons system they have supported despite mounting evidence of its irrelevance to the threats America faces....
With the exception of those who have been drinking the missile defense Kool-aid, experts agree that long-range missile interception does not work. That is why Congress wisely ordered that no funds be spent on these European bases until after realistic tests can show the weapons
can work and the Czech and the Polish parliaments approve any deal. Neither is likely before 2010.
Meanwhile, F. William Engdahl of the Center for Research on Globalisation, a Montreal-based think tank, argues that the US-Poland deal is "the most dangerous move towards nuclear war the world has seen since the 1962 Cuba Missile crisis."
Far from a defensive move to protect European NATO states from a Russian nuclear attack, as military strategists have pointed out, the US missiles in Poland pose a total existential threat to the future existence of the Russian nation. The Russian Government has repeatedly warned of this since US plans were first unveiled in early 2007. Now, despite repeated diplomatic attempts by Russia to come to an agreement with
Washington, the Bush Administration, in the wake of a humiliating US defeat in Georgia, has pressured the Government of Poland to finally sign the pact. The consequences could be unthinkable for Europe and the planet.
(NATO), Dmitry Rogozin, told Reuters that the timing of the agreement proves that Russia is its intended target."The fact that this was signed in a period of very difficult crisis in the relations between Russia and the United States over the situation in Georgia shows that, of course, the missile defense system will be deployed not against Iran but against the strategic potential of Russia,"
Dmitry Rogozin said in a telephone interview....
"I consider that the United States is not acting in a cautious manner in this situation," Rogozin said when asked about U.S.-Russian relations and the situation in Georgia.
"Instead of getting full moral and political support in the struggle against real aggression and ethnic cleansing, we have heard a mass of unpleasant words and threats. That will of course not strengthen our relations."
Mr. Rogozin was not the only Russian voice to criticize the deal. The Associated Press writes that Gen. Anatoly Nogovitsyn, deputy chief of the Russian general staff, warned that the deal "cannot go unpunished."
A Polskie Radio website, The News, reports that Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov cancelled a trip to Warsaw meant to improve
Polish-Russian relations while a Russian parliamentary official warned that Russia may now aim its rockets at Poland.The BBC reports that US President George Bush was "very pleased" with the deal, but notes that a White House spokesperson denied that the agreement had anything to do with Russia. Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski made similar comments to the BBC.
"We agreed this negotiating phase a week ago, which was ... before the events in Georgia, and because of the US calendar there was some urgency," [Sikorski] said.
"But, what is crucial, and what decided the success of the talks over the last couple of days, was that the US offered us new proposals."
The Times of London suggests that the "new proposals" that cinched the deal were the US's agreement to deploy Patriot missiles, which will bolster Polish air defenses and "are supposed to reassure Poland in case the Russians start rattling their sabres."
At least one Russian official has said that the agreement's practical military impact is minor, however. RIA Novosti reports that Andrei Klimov,
deputy head of the State Duma's international affairs committee, downplayed the strategic importance of the missile base as well as the timing of the agreement. "There might be a psychological element in it, but talks with Poland had been dragging on long enough beforehand," he said.
The agreement saw criticism not only in Russia, but in the West as well. TheHuffington Post blogger Joe Cirincione wrote that the missile deal brings no security gains and is instead driven by proponents of an unproven technology.
The proposed deployment of missile defenses in Poland and the Czech Republic and the Russian-Georgia conflict are two separate issues.
This is not about defending the democracy in Georgia; this is about ideologues trying to save a weapons system they have supported despite mounting evidence of its irrelevance to the threats America faces....
With the exception of those who have been drinking the missile defense Kool-aid, experts agree that long-range missile interception does not work. That is why Congress wisely ordered that no funds be spent on these European bases until after realistic tests can show the weapons
can work and the Czech and the Polish parliaments approve any deal. Neither is likely before 2010.
Meanwhile, F. William Engdahl of the Center for Research on Globalisation, a Montreal-based think tank, argues that the US-Poland deal is "the most dangerous move towards nuclear war the world has seen since the 1962 Cuba Missile crisis."Far from a defensive move to protect European NATO states from a Russian nuclear attack, as military strategists have pointed out, the US missiles in Poland pose a total existential threat to the future existence of the Russian nation. The Russian Government has repeatedly warned of this since US plans were first unveiled in early 2007. Now, despite repeated diplomatic attempts by Russia to come to an agreement with
Washington, the Bush Administration, in the wake of a humiliating US defeat in Georgia, has pressured the Government of Poland to finally sign the pact. The consequences could be unthinkable for Europe and the planet.
From The Times UK August 14, 2008
George Bush squares up to Vladimir Putin over Georgia
George Bush squares up to Vladimir Putin over Georgia
Tom Baldwin in Washington
President Bush dispatched US military hardware to the heart of the Caucasus yesterday and warned Russia that it could be frozen out of international bodies as punishment for its aggression in Georgia.
In his toughest criticism of Russia since becoming President, Mr Bush accused it of breaching the provisional ceasefire agreed with Georgia only 24 hours earlier.
He cited intelligence showing that Russian troops had again taken the town of Gori and could threaten the capital, Tbilisi. He insisted that Moscow respect the former Soviet republic’s territorial integrity. There were also reports of Russian-backed militia in South Ossetia looting ethnic Georgian villages and killing inhabitants.
“To begin to repair the damage to its relations with the United States, Europe and other nations, and to begin restoring its place in the world, Russia must keep its word and act to end this crisis,” Mr Bush said.
The US is in talks with allies about whether to suspend Russia’s membership of the G8 club of industrialised nations. There is a growing clamour to block Russia’s membership of the World Trade Organisation and to rescind an invitation for it to join the Organisation for
Economic Cooperation and Development.
Mr Bush’s statement, delivered in stern tones outside the White House, was stronger than his cautious comments last week, which reflected the State Department’s unhappiness with Georgia’s use of force against pro-Russian separatist rebels in South Ossetia.
Although direct military intervention is not being considered, Pentagon sources have hinted that a limited number of troops could be deployed to support what Mr Bush described as a vigorous and continuing humanitarian mission headed by the US military.
The first US air force transport aircraft arrived last night, and the navy was heading to the Black Sea – which is controlled by Russian warships – to deliver humanitarian and medical supplies direct to Georgian ports. “We expect Russia to honour its commitment to let in all forms of
humanitarian assistance,” Mr Bush said.
President Saakashvili of Georgia seized on the announcement to say that Tbilisi airport and Poti port would be placed under US military
control, a claim the Pentagon swiftly denied.
Condoleezza Rice, the US Secretary of State, flew to France last night to meet President Sarkozy before heading to Tbilisi. Sergei Lavrov, her
Russian counterpart, said that the US must choose between supporting the Georgian leadership and maintaining a partnership with Russia on
international issues. Dr Rice said: “This is not 1968 and the invasion of Czechoslovakia, where Russia can threaten its neighbours, occupy a
capital, overthrow a government and get away with it. Things have changed.”
The Georgian President had accused the US of squandering its support among former Soviet republics. Diplomats say that they have little
leverage against a Kremlin in which the strings are still being pulled by Vladimir Putin, the former President. The most likely sanctions are those that would damage Russia’s prestige.
Mr Bush said: “Russia has sought to integrate into the diplomatic, political, economic and security structures of the 21st century. Now Russia is putting its aspirations at risk by taking actions in Georgia that are inconsistent with the principles of those institutions.”
David Miliband, the Foreign Secretary, said that the EU should reassess plans for a partnership agreement with Russia. For the time being, measures being taken have been limited to a US boycott of a Nato meeting with a Russian delegation and the likely cancellation of a joint naval
exercise.
In his toughest criticism of Russia since becoming President, Mr Bush accused it of breaching the provisional ceasefire agreed with Georgia only 24 hours earlier.
He cited intelligence showing that Russian troops had again taken the town of Gori and could threaten the capital, Tbilisi. He insisted that Moscow respect the former Soviet republic’s territorial integrity. There were also reports of Russian-backed militia in South Ossetia looting ethnic Georgian villages and killing inhabitants.“To begin to repair the damage to its relations with the United States, Europe and other nations, and to begin restoring its place in the world, Russia must keep its word and act to end this crisis,” Mr Bush said.
The US is in talks with allies about whether to suspend Russia’s membership of the G8 club of industrialised nations. There is a growing clamour to block Russia’s membership of the World Trade Organisation and to rescind an invitation for it to join the Organisation for
Economic Cooperation and Development.
Mr Bush’s statement, delivered in stern tones outside the White House, was stronger than his cautious comments last week, which reflected the State Department’s unhappiness with Georgia’s use of force against pro-Russian separatist rebels in South Ossetia.
Although direct military intervention is not being considered, Pentagon sources have hinted that a limited number of troops could be deployed to support what Mr Bush described as a vigorous and continuing humanitarian mission headed by the US military.The first US air force transport aircraft arrived last night, and the navy was heading to the Black Sea – which is controlled by Russian warships – to deliver humanitarian and medical supplies direct to Georgian ports. “We expect Russia to honour its commitment to let in all forms of
humanitarian assistance,” Mr Bush said.
President Saakashvili of Georgia seized on the announcement to say that Tbilisi airport and Poti port would be placed under US militarycontrol, a claim the Pentagon swiftly denied.
Condoleezza Rice, the US Secretary of State, flew to France last night to meet President Sarkozy before heading to Tbilisi. Sergei Lavrov, her
Russian counterpart, said that the US must choose between supporting the Georgian leadership and maintaining a partnership with Russia on
international issues. Dr Rice said: “This is not 1968 and the invasion of Czechoslovakia, where Russia can threaten its neighbours, occupy acapital, overthrow a government and get away with it. Things have changed.”
The Georgian President had accused the US of squandering its support among former Soviet republics. Diplomats say that they have little
leverage against a Kremlin in which the strings are still being pulled by Vladimir Putin, the former President. The most likely sanctions are those that would damage Russia’s prestige.
Mr Bush said: “Russia has sought to integrate into the diplomatic, political, economic and security structures of the 21st century. Now Russia is putting its aspirations at risk by taking actions in Georgia that are inconsistent with the principles of those institutions.”
David Miliband, the Foreign Secretary, said that the EU should reassess plans for a partnership agreement with Russia. For the time being, measures being taken have been limited to a US boycott of a Nato meeting with a Russian delegation and the likely cancellation of a joint naval
exercise.
December 20, 2007
Central Asia on Front Line in Energy Battle
By ANDREW E. KRAMERBUKHARA, Uzbekistan — In the scrub brush desert south of this ancient Silk Road town, the natural gas wellheads are built on modest concrete platforms about the size of basketball courts. Because the gas is naturally pressurized, pumps are not needed to bring it to the surface. Pipes simply kiss the ground and gas pours through them.The issue is where the gas goes from there.
After the breakup of the Soviet Union, the United States and its European allies sought to ensure that Central Asia’s enormous oil and gas wealth would flow through pipelines bypassing Russia. It was the latest version of the Great Game, the 19th-century contest between Imperial
Britain and Czarist Russia for dominance in the region. Lately, however, the West is falling behind, as a torch lighting ceremony last month made clear.
Executives from Lukoil, the Russian oil company, and government officials from Moscow had come to inaugurate the latest Central Asia gasfield to come online. Developed by Lukoil, the Khauzak field is estimated to hold 400 billion cubic meters of natural gas, which Lukoil has sold
in advance for the next 32 years to Gazprom, the Russian natural gas giant.
Coming as some political developments in the region had renewed Western companies’ hopes of
doing business in Central Asia, the Nov. 29ceremony — held before a planeload of Moscow-based journalists flown in for the occasion — seemed tailored to remind the world of
Russia’s lead in the new Great Game.
“We have a good head start and we will use it,” Russia’s first deputy prime minister, Sergei B. Ivanov, said from a makeshift podium above
the red sands of the Kyzylkum desert.
The Bush administration has identified Central Asia as a promising alternative to the volatile Middle East as a source for oil and natural gas. As American officials pursue a policy of encouraging energy exports that bypass Russia, they are also trying to pry open Central Asia to Western oil investment.
Russia is countering by raising its investment in Central Asian fields and pipelines.
Much is at stake. Russia is the world’s largest natural gas producer and a major supplier to Europe. It relies on Central Asian supplies to meet these commitments.
“The Russians are very keen to fight their corner in Central Asia,” Jonathan Stern, a natural gas expert at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, said in a telephone interview.“The Russians are not just cozying up” to Central Asia’s autocratic leaders to achieve their aims, Mr. Stern said. “Russian companies have put their money where their mouth is.”
Flush with cash from their own oil boom, the Russians are investing heavily in new development, posing a challenge to Western companies like Exxon Mobil, Chevron and ConocoPhillips that are eager to expand their Central Asian operations.
After an investment of $3.5 billion, the Lukoil project will tie together three natural gas and gas condensate fields by 2011 to produce 11 billion cubic meters of natural gas a year for export.
In the three years since Lukoil signed the production sharing agreement with the Uzbek government for Khauzak, Uzbek politics have taken a sharp turn in Russia’s favor, shutting Western oil majors out of Uzbekistan.
In May 2005, President Islam A. Karimov’s troops opened fire on a mixed crowd of escaped prisoners, gunmen and antigovernment demonstrators in a square in the Fergana Valley town of Andijon, killing hundreds in what human rights groups say was the worst massacre of
street protesters since Tiananmen Square in 1989.
The episode led to deep strains in diplomatic relations with the United States. Even before the shooting, human rights groups accused Uzbek authorities of abuses, including two incidents in which political prisoners were reportedly boiled to death in an Uzbek prison. Prospects for a
Western role in the country’s natural gas industry waned.
In contrast, Russian President Vladimir V. Putin visited Mr. Karimov in Uzbekistan after the Andijon shootings and endorsed his justification.
In 2006, Lukoil expanded its presence here in a consortium with the China National Petroleum Corporation, Petronas of Malaysia and the Korea National Oil Company to explore a natural gas deposit beneath the dry bed of the Aral Sea estimated to hold more than one trillion
cubic meters of gas.
And in neighboring Turkmenistan, Mr. Putin secured an agreement in May to expand natural gas exports via a branch of the Central Asia- Center natural gas pipeline, which runs along the eastern shore of the Caspian Sea, north toward Russia. It was the most significant energy
deal in that country this year. And this summer, crews from China, another country ascendant in Central Asia, began exploration drilling for gas on the eastern bank of the Amu Darya river, according to Mr. Stern, the Oxford Energy analyst.
To be sure, in the 1990s European and American companies made great gains in Kazakhstan — which has emerged as the leading commercial power in Central Asia. Chief among those gains was Kashagan, the largest oil find in the world since the discovery of Alaska’s
Prudhoe Bay in the 1970s. But the deal has been mired in dispute, with Kazakh authorities forcing a renegotiation of terms with consortium partners Eni of Italy, Exxon Mobil and ConocoPhillips of the United States, Royal Dutch Shell and Inpex Holdings of Japan.
Kazakhstan has also turned its attention to the east, planning a natural gas pipeline over the Tian Shan mountains to the neighboring Chinese province of Xinjiang, a snub to American and European companies and governments. The West supports a western route under the Caspian
Sea, via Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey, and on to world markets — threading the pipes through a narrow corridor between Russia and Iran to plug into the Central Asian oil and gas fields.
The BP-operated BTC oil pipeline and a parallel gas pipeline now stop in Azerbaijan, on the western shore of the Caspian, and the grand project seems to be stalled there for now.
The next step is to build the trans-Caspian leg, which Russia is blocking through a mix of political and business strategy. The Russians are buying up much of the natural gas production capacity to make the Western plan commercially nonviable because of a lack of available gas.
With the help of Iran, they are also contesting the legal status of the Caspian Sea that the oil and gas pipelines would pass under.
Moscow is also offering guarantees of support to the Central Asian potentates if a Ukrainian-style domestic uprising should take place, leading to a change in government, something the United States and Europe cannot do.
In one encouraging sign for the Western majors, the death last spring of the longtime leader of Turkmenistan, Saparmurat Niyazov, has brought a modest political thaw and heightened expectations of new oil and gas concessions. During the rule of Mr. Niyazov, who gave himself
the name Turkmenbashi, or Father of all Turkmens, and who had commissioned golden statues in his likeness, Turkmenistan had mostly dropped off the agenda of Western oil companies.
So it was no surprise that Western companies rushed to sponsor this year’s Turkmenistan Oil and Gas Conference in Ashgabat last month;
Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Baker Hughes, Schlumberger and Statoil were among the sponsors, though no deals were signed.
Sharing the upbeat mood, Samuel Bodman, the United States secretary of energy, delivered a speech on Nov. 15, noting “opportunities are opening that could not have been imagined even a year ago,” according to an Energy Department transcript.
Still, as Mr. Bodman spoke, a few hundred miles away, across the Kyzylkum desert in Uzbekistan, Russian engineers were welding the last
pipes into place at Lukoil’s field. At the Nov. 29 opening ceremony, the pipes glistened with fresh paint and hissed with natural gas flowing northward toward Russia.
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